Money Talks: Predicting the Winner of the 2018 Russia World Cup based on Market Value
Kylian Mbappé
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The Socceroos
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“Money talks, but it don’t sing and dance and it don’t walk..” ~Neil Diamond
Yeah, but maybe it can play soccer. International Football is big business, and the amounts payed to individual players, and represented in national squads, varies widely. Ground curators do their best, but there really is no level playing field in soccer.
Here’s a timely example. The French winger, Kylian Mbappé, has a market value of 120 Million Euros. That’s about two and a half times the total market value of the whole Australian squad. (By the way, France plays Australia on 16 June.)
There’s a lot of money in the World Game, and, this month, there’s a lot of money being placed ON the game, with bookmakers the world over taking bets on every match, outcome and permutation.
Here’s a timely example. The French winger, Kylian Mbappé, has a market value of 120 Million Euros. That’s about two and a half times the total market value of the whole Australian squad. (By the way, France plays Australia on 16 June.)
There’s a lot of money in the World Game, and, this month, there’s a lot of money being placed ON the game, with bookmakers the world over taking bets on every match, outcome and permutation.
FIFA Rankings
One easy way to pick a winner is to simply pay attention to the current FIFA ranking. Here are the rankings of the 32 qualifiers as at 16 May 2018.
One easy way to pick a winner is to simply pay attention to the current FIFA ranking. Here are the rankings of the 32 qualifiers as at 16 May 2018.
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In the World Cup, the top teams that qualify are seeded into the eight groups and playoffs occur in such a way that it is quite possible for the top ranked four teams to meet each other in the semifinals. Simply on the basis of FIFA ranking, we would expect Germany to beat Brazil in the final, with Belgium and Portugal in third and fourth place.
Money Talks
The FIFA rankings are a weighted measure of recent performance. The way the national teams played in the World Cup four years ago, in Brazil, is virtually meaningless in 2018. The thing about the World Cup, though, is that it is the one all-in international competition that sees every top ranked player free to play. The clubs are bound to release them, which is not always the case for other international matches. Market value suddenly becomes more relevant than at other times, and arguably more relevant than the FIFA ranking itself.
The FIFA rankings are a weighted measure of recent performance. The way the national teams played in the World Cup four years ago, in Brazil, is virtually meaningless in 2018. The thing about the World Cup, though, is that it is the one all-in international competition that sees every top ranked player free to play. The clubs are bound to release them, which is not always the case for other international matches. Market value suddenly becomes more relevant than at other times, and arguably more relevant than the FIFA ranking itself.
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Solely on the basis of average market value, we would expect France to beat Spain in the final, with Germany and Brazil in third and fourth place. This is a significantly different result from the FIFA ranking.
Certainly, there is a correlation between the market value of a team and their FIFA ranking. There are two ways to find such a correlation. One is to input the raw figures, in which case the correlation is -0.62, which is moderately high. The other is to correlate the positions (1 to 32) of value and ranking, rather than the raw figures, in which case the correlation is -0.7, which is high. In a way, the ranked positions are more useful than the raw figures, as a soccer match is low scoring by design and time-limited, which blunts the full force of qualitative differences between teams.
Odds Offered
It is worth pointing out that neither the FIFA rankings nor the market values are the same as the odds currently being offered by betting agencies. For example, the site oddshark.com provided the following odds on 18 May 2018.
It is worth pointing out that neither the FIFA rankings nor the market values are the same as the odds currently being offered by betting agencies. For example, the site oddshark.com provided the following odds on 18 May 2018.
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On the basis of odds offered, we would expect Germany and Brazil to draw in the final and have to decide the matter by the dreaded penalty shootout (which everyone agrees is a terrible way to end it, but then we all watch it excitedly anyway).
The raw correlation between FIFA rankings and odds at that betting agency is 0.58, mild, while the ranked correlation is 0.74, which latter is high. Raw correlation between market values and odds is -0.58, mild. The ranked correlation, however, between average squad market value and betting odds is 0.91, which is extremely high. It is likely that player values are having a direct effect on the betting market. Money follows money.
The Rocky Road to the Final
From time to time a qualifying group with highly ranked teams in it is described as a “group of death.” On the basis of market value, the highest ranked group is Group B (Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Iran). The problem with this description is that whether a group is difficult or easy, the top two teams go through. Groups of death do not kill more teams than other, less deadly groups.
Australian commentators were quick to describe Group C (France, Denmark, Peru, Australia) as a group of death. It is certainly a group of death for Australia. Less so for the others.
Perhaps it is better to designate a group with evenly matched teams as a “group of death,” as it will be more equally difficult for each of the four to get through. On the basis of market value, this applies best to Group H (Colombia, Japan, Poland, Senegal). This approach, however, takes the romance out of it a bit, as no one cares about a group that has no real finals prospect in it.
Regardless, an easy road through the group stages will arguably not prepare a good team as well as a difficult route. In other words, perhaps surviving a relative “group of death” makes a team harder to beat thereafter. Making the assumption that the teams with greater average market value will proceed from the group stages, we might then assume that the strength of the other teams they humble along the way will prepare them, more or less, according, again, to average market value.
Like the swordsmen from the old Highlander movies, each head they cut off adds to their own strength. This proposal is played out below; first, using raw average market values, and then, second, using the ranking of market values.
From time to time a qualifying group with highly ranked teams in it is described as a “group of death.” On the basis of market value, the highest ranked group is Group B (Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Iran). The problem with this description is that whether a group is difficult or easy, the top two teams go through. Groups of death do not kill more teams than other, less deadly groups.
Australian commentators were quick to describe Group C (France, Denmark, Peru, Australia) as a group of death. It is certainly a group of death for Australia. Less so for the others.
Perhaps it is better to designate a group with evenly matched teams as a “group of death,” as it will be more equally difficult for each of the four to get through. On the basis of market value, this applies best to Group H (Colombia, Japan, Poland, Senegal). This approach, however, takes the romance out of it a bit, as no one cares about a group that has no real finals prospect in it.
Regardless, an easy road through the group stages will arguably not prepare a good team as well as a difficult route. In other words, perhaps surviving a relative “group of death” makes a team harder to beat thereafter. Making the assumption that the teams with greater average market value will proceed from the group stages, we might then assume that the strength of the other teams they humble along the way will prepare them, more or less, according, again, to average market value.
Like the swordsmen from the old Highlander movies, each head they cut off adds to their own strength. This proposal is played out below; first, using raw average market values, and then, second, using the ranking of market values.
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The projection above sees Belgium beating Spain in the final with France and Germany in third and fourth place. It is an interesting result, given that Belgium is ranked third by FIFA, ranked fifth by market value and ranked sixth by the bookmakers. Perhaps Belgium is the dark horse of the tournament.
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This second projection, using ranked average market value, sees Brazil (narrowly) defeat Germany in the final, with Spain and France fighting it out for third and fourth places. Belgium are not represented here. Brazil do not top either FIFA rankings or market value, but they have the nod from the bookies, nonetheless. Indeed, this system creates the final that the bookies are backing.
The second system is to be preferred, if the bookies are anything to go by, and the odds offered correlate better with ranked values than with raw values.
The second system is to be preferred, if the bookies are anything to go by, and the odds offered correlate better with ranked values than with raw values.
Weighting Market Value
Where does this all leave the lonely tipster? Should FIFA ranking and the recent performance of teams be overlooked altogether? Certainly, market value is to be preferred, but perhaps not solely. The ranked FIFA correlation with odds offered was still significant, if less so.
One way to go is to weight average market value 2:1 over FIFA rankings, which produces the following result:
Where does this all leave the lonely tipster? Should FIFA ranking and the recent performance of teams be overlooked altogether? Certainly, market value is to be preferred, but perhaps not solely. The ranked FIFA correlation with odds offered was still significant, if less so.
One way to go is to weight average market value 2:1 over FIFA rankings, which produces the following result:
Here, Germany beats France and Brazil and Spain battle for third. Note that the market values, FIFA rankings and odds can all change in the leadup to the cup. This projection is a snapshot in time.
Of course, at the end of the day, one of the attractions of International Football is that it is a capricious beast. Percentage possession usually equates to results, but, because it is a relatively low scoring game, sometimes David does defeat Goliath. Perhaps that is why it continues to attract such widespread support. The world game reaches its quadrennial peak in July 2018, and one of the Goliaths is expected to win. They might not.
Of course, at the end of the day, one of the attractions of International Football is that it is a capricious beast. Percentage possession usually equates to results, but, because it is a relatively low scoring game, sometimes David does defeat Goliath. Perhaps that is why it continues to attract such widespread support. The world game reaches its quadrennial peak in July 2018, and one of the Goliaths is expected to win. They might not.
Post script: So, France were champions.... no surprise there given their player salaries. The great surprise was little Croatia, runners up, what an effort!